Cointegration analysis of rainfall onset and cessation in rainforest of Nigeria

Authors

  • Adewale Adetayo Obafemi Awolowo University
  • Adeolu Fasade
  • Gafar Akinoso
  • Taofik Dauda

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.36253/ijam-3708

Keywords:

long run, fluunctuation, casualty, adaptation

Abstract

This study investigates the autocorrelation patterns, tests for stationarity, and applies cointegration analysis to explore the existence of long-term relationships among rainfall characteristics in selected states in Southwestern Nigeria. It utilizes 38 years of rainfall data (1986–2024) for Ibadan and 34 years (1990–2024) for Akure, focusing on three key indices: onset, cessation, and length of rainy season. The data were sourced from the Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NiMet) and analyzed using time series techniques, including unit root tests, the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test, and cointegration analysis. The results reveal no significant cointegration between rainfall cessation and length, and between rainfall cessation and onset in the study area. A weak cointegration relationship was observed between onset and length of rainy season, while stronger long-term relationships are evident between rainfall onset and cessation, and onset and length in Ibadan. In contrast, these relationships appear weaker in Akure, suggesting that rainfall patterns in Ibadan are relatively more stable and predictable, likely influenced by its tropical weather system. These findings underscore the need for location-specific adaptation strategies to address climate change and variability. Moreover, the use of cointegration and causality analyses provides a robust framework for understanding long-term climatic interactions, offering valuable insights for enhancing climate resilience in Nigeria. Future research is recommended to expand on these findings by integrating additional climatic variables such as temperature, humidity, and evaporation, and by assessing the potential impacts of urbanization and land use changes on rainfall dynamics within the rainforest.

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Published

2026-10-06

How to Cite

Adetayo, A., Fasade, A., Akinoso, G., & Dauda, T. (2026). Cointegration analysis of rainfall onset and cessation in rainforest of Nigeria. Italian Journal of Agrometeorology. https://doi.org/10.36253/ijam-3708

Issue

Section

REVIEW AND RESEARCH ARTICLES

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