Assessment and modelling of crop yield and water footprint of winter wheat by aquacrop
Agriculture has a considerable impact on water resources and it is strongly affected by climate change. It is important to determine and forecast crop water use for controlling and planning water resources while ensuring agricultural sustainability. Crop Water Footprint (WF) is an indicator of water consumed for crop production. The aim of the study is to calculate WF of winter wheat using Water Footprint Assessment (WFA) and to simulate future WFs by means of AquaCrop model for the Thrace region in Turkey. Although winter wheat does not require irrigation, the estimation of the WF is of importance due to its extensive production throughout the country. The WFs is estimated using meteorological and CORDEX data. The emerging findings indicate an increase in average temperature between 0.9 and 4.0°C. Precipitation is expected to increase by 15% under the optimistic scenario (RCP 4.5) and decrease by 17% under the worst-case scenario (RCP 8.5) by 2099. Winter wheat yield will positively be affected by increasing temperatures by up to 17% under RCP 4.5 and 26% under RCP 8.5 scenarios.
Allen, R. G., Pereira, L. S., Raes, D., & Smith, M. (1998). Guidelines for computing crop water requirements. Irrigation and drainage Paper, 56, 300.
Alvarez, A., Morabito, J. A., & Schilardi, C. (2016). Green and blue water footprint of corn (Zea mayz) production in central and northeastern provinces of Argentina. Revista de la Facultad de Ciencias Agrarias, Universidad Nacional de Cuyo, 48(1), 161-177.
Bakanogullari, F., Yesilkoy, S., Akataş, N., Saylan, L., & Çaldağ, B. (2018). Modelling the Adaptation Capabilities of Sunflower and Winter Wheat to Crop Rotation and Possible Climatic Change in Thrace. International Scientific for Agriculture and Food, 135-139.
Bocchiola, D., Nana, E., & Soncini, A. (2013). Impact of climate change scenarios on crop yield and water footprint of maize in the Po valley of Italy. Agricultural Water Management, 116, 50-61.
Casolani, N., Pattara, C., & Liberatore, L. (2016). Water and carbon footprint perspective in Italian durum wheat production. Land Use Policy, 58, 394-402.
Chen, J., Brissette, F. P., Chaumont, D., & Braun, M. (2013). Finding appropriate bias correction methods in downscaling precipitation for hydrologic impact studies over North America. Water Resources Research, 49(7), 4187-4205.
Christensen, O. B., Drews, M., Christensen, J. H., Dethloff, K., Ketelsen, K., Hebestadt, I., & Rinke, A. (2007). The HIRHAM regional climate model. Version 5 (beta).
Chouchane, H., Krol, M. S., & Hoekstra, A. Y. (2018). Virtual water trade patterns in relation to environmental and socioeconomic factors: A case study for Tunisia. Science of the total environment, 613, 287-297.
De Miguel, Á., Kallache, M., & García-Calvo, E. (2015). The water footprint of agriculture in Duero River Basin. Sustainability, 7(6), 6759-6780.
Denis, D. M., Kumar, M., Srivastava, S., Suryavanshi, S., Denis, A. F., Singh, R., ... & Mishra, H. (2016). A high resolution assessment of water footprint of wheat to understand yield and water use heterogeneity. Water resources management, 30(8), 2641-2649.
Deryng, D., Elliott, J., Folberth, C., Müller, C., Pugh, T. A., Boote, K. J., ... & Khabarov, N. (2016). Regional disparities in the beneficial effects of rising CO 2 concentrations on crop water productivity. Nature Climate Change, 6(8), 786-790.
Feng, L., Chen, B., Hayat, T., Alsaedi, A., & Ahmad, B. (2017). Dynamic forecasting of agricultural water footprint based on Markov Chain-a case study of the Heihe River Basin. Ecological modelling, 353, 150-157.
Garofalo, P., Ventrella, D., Kersebaum, K. C., Gobin, A., Trnka, M., Giglio, L., ... & Castellini, M. (2019). Water footprint of winter wheat under climate change: Trends and uncertainties associated to the ensemble of crop models. Science of The Total Environment, 658, 1186-1208.
Gobin, A., Kersebaum, K. C., Eitzinger, J., Trnka, M., Hlavinka, P., Takáč, J., ... & Lalić, B. (2017). Variability in the water footprint of arable crop production across European regions. Water, 9(2), 93.
Gudmundsson, L., Bremnes, J. B., Haugen, J. E., & Engen-Skaugen, T. (2012). Downscaling RCM precipitation to the station scale using statistical transformations: a comparison of methods. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 16(9), 3383-3390.
Gürbüz, M. A., Kayalı, E., Bahar, E., Öz, T. A., & Kurşun, İ. (2019). Composing the Database of Thrace Soils and Some Soil Characteristics. Toprak Bilimi ve Bitki Besleme Dergisi, 7(1), 28-36.
Heo, J. H., Ahn, H., Shin, J. Y., Kjeldsen, T. R., & Jeong, C. (2019). Probability distributions for a quantile mapping technique for a bias correction of precipitation data: A case study to precipitation data under climate change. Water, 11(7), 1475.
Hoekstra, A. Y. (2003, February). Virtual water: An introduction. In Virtual water trade: Proceedings of the international expert meeting on virtual water trade. Value of water research report series (11) (pp. 13-23). IHE Delft.
Hoekstra, A. Y., Chapagain, A. K., Mekonnen, M. M., & Aldaya, M. M. (2011). The water footprint assessment manual: Setting the global standard. Routledge.
Huang, J., Ridoutt, B. G., Thorp, K. R., Wang, X., Lan, K., Liao, J., ... & Scherer, L. (2019). Water-scarcity footprints and water productivities indicate unsustainable wheat production in China. Agricultural Water Management, 224, 105744.
Jakob Themeßl, M., Gobiet, A., & Leuprecht, A. (2011). Empirical‐statistical downscaling and error correction of daily precipitation from regional climate models. International Journal of Climatology, 31(10), 1530-1544.
Karandish, F., & Hoekstra, A. (2017). Informing national food and water security policy through water footprint assessment: the case of Iran. Water, 9(11), 831.
Kersebaum, K. C., Kroes, J., Gobin, A., Takáč, J., Hlavinka, P., Trnka, M., ... & Dalla Marta, A. (2016). Assessing uncertainties of water footprints using an ensemble of crop growth models on winter wheat. Water, 8(12), 571.
Lalić, B., Sremac, A. F., Eitzinger, J., Stričević, R., Thaler, S., Maksimović, I., ... & Dekić, L. (2018). Seasonal forecasting of green water components and crop yield of summer crops in Serbia and Austria. The Journal of agricultural science, 156(5), 658-672.
Luan, X., Wu, P., Sun, S., Wang, Y., & Gao, X. (2018). Quantitative study of the crop production water footprint using the SWAT model. Ecological Indicators, 89, 1-10.
Macadam, I., Argüeso, D., Evans, J. P., Liu, D. L., & Pitman, A. J. (2016). The effect of bias correction and climate model resolution on wheat simulations forced with a regional climate model ensemble. International Journal of Climatology, 36(14), 4577-4591.
Mekonnen, M. M., & Hoekstra, A. Y. (2011). The green, blue and grey water footprint of crops and derived crop products. Hydrology & Earth System Sciences Discussions, 8(1).
Muratoglu, A. (2019). Water footprint assessment within a catchment: A case study for Upper Tigris River Basin. Ecological Indicators, 106, 105467.
Nearing, M. A., Foster, G. R., Lane, L. J., & Finkner, S. C. (1989). A process-based soil erosion model for USDA-Water Erosion Prediction Project technology. Transactions of the ASAE, 32(5), 1587-1593.
Nouri, H., Stokvis, B., Galindo, A., Blatchford, M., & Hoekstra, A. Y. (2019). Water scarcity alleviation through water footprint reduction in agriculture: the effect of soil mulching and drip irrigation. Science of the total environment, 653, 241-252.
Palosuo, T., Kersebaum, K. C., Angulo, C., Hlavinka, P., Moriondo, M., Olesen, J. E., ... & Trnka, M. (2011). Simulation of winter wheat yield and its variability in different climates of Europe: a comparison of eight crop growth models. European Journal of Agronomy, 35(3), 103-114.
Qian, B., Wang, H., He, Y., Liu, J., & De Jong, R. (2016). Projecting spring wheat yield changes on the Canadian Prairies: effects of resolutions of a regional climate model and statistical processing. International Journal of Climatology, 36(10), 3492-3506.
Raes, D., Steduto, P., Hsiao, T. C., & Fereres, E. (2009). AquaCrop—the FAO crop model to simulate yield response to water: II. Main algorithms and software description. Agronomy Journal, 101(3), 438-447.
Santos, N., Hess, S., & Jaghdani, T. J. (2017). Turkey. Water along the food chain. Towards water-smart agrifood policies: the case of red meat processing. Turkey. Water along the food chain. Towards water-smart agrifood policies: the case of red meat processing.
Shiklomanov, I. A. (2000). Appraisal and assessment of world water resources. Water international, 25(1), 11-32.
Shrestha, S., Chapagain, R., & Babel, M. S. (2017). Quantifying the impact of climate change on crop yield and water footprint of rice in the Nam Oon Irrigation Project, Thailand. Science of the Total Environment, 599, 689-699.
Soriano, E., Mediero, L., & Garijo, C. (2018). Selection of Bias Correction Methods to Assess the Impact of Climate Change on Flood Frequency Curves. In Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute Proceedings (Vol. 7, No. 1, p. 14).
Steduto, P., Hsiao, T. C., Raes, D., & Fereres, E. (2009). AquaCrop—The FAO crop model to simulate yield response to water: I. Concepts and underlying principles. Agronomy Journal, 101(3), 426-437.
Teng, J., Potter, N. J., Chiew, F. H. S., Zhang, L., Wang, B., Vaze, J., & Evans, J. P. (2015). How does bias correction of regional climate model precipitation affect modelled runoff?. Hydrology & Earth System Sciences, 19(2).
Teutschbein, C., & Seibert, J. (2012). Bias correction of regional climate model simulations for hydrological climate-change impact studies: Review and evaluation of different methods. Journal of hydrology, 456, 12-29.
Tsakmakis, I. D., Zoidou, M., Gikas, G. D., & Sylaios, G. K. (2018). Impact of irrigation technologies and strategies on cotton water footprint using AquaCrop and CROPWAT models. Environmental Processes, 5(1), 181-199.
Ventrella, D., Giglio, L., Garofalo, P., & Dalla Marta, A. (2018). Regional assessment of green and blue water consumption for tomato cultivated in Southern Italy. The Journal of Agricultural Science, 156(5), 689-701.
Wang, X., Li, X., Fischer, G., Sun, L., Tan, M., Xin, L., & Liang, Z. (2015). Impact of the changing area sown to winter wheat on crop water footprint in the North China Plain. Ecological Indicators, 57, 100-109.
Ye, Q., Li, Y., Zhang, W., & Cai, W. (2019). Influential factors on water footprint: A focus on wheat production and consumption in virtual water import and export regions. Ecological indicators, 102, 309-315.
Zhai, Y., Tan, X., Ma, X., An, M., Zhao, Q., Shen, X., & Hong, J. (2019). Water footprint analysis of wheat production. Ecological indicators, 102, 95-102.
Zhuo, L., & Hoekstra, A. Y. (2017). The effect of different agricultural management practices on irrigation efficiency, water use efficiency and green and blue water footprint. Frontiers of Agricultural Science and Engineering, 4(2), 185-194.
Zhuo, L., Mekonnen, M. M., & Hoekstra, A. Y. (2016). Benchmark levels for the consumptive water footprint of crop production for different environmental conditions: a case study for winter wheat in China. Hydrology and earth system sciences, 20(11), 4547-4559.
Copyright (c) 2020 Serhan Yeşilköy, Levent Şaylan
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
Authors retain the copyright and grant the journal right of first publication with the work simultaneously licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International Public License (CC-BY-4.0) that allows others to share the work with an acknowledgment of the work's authorship and initial publication in IJAm.
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License