Direct and indirect effects of heat stress on cattle in East Africa

Authors

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.36253/ijam-3827

Keywords:

THI, Indigenous breeds, Heat-tolerance, Food security, Climate resilience

Abstract

CONTEXT

Climate-driven fluctuations are expected to significantly affect animal welfare, as well as reproduction and production parameters of livestock systems in East Africa. This is particularly concerning in a region where dairy production is a vital lifeline for smallholder farmers.

OBJECTIVE

Here we used state-of-the-art climate projections (CORDEX-CORE) across two representative concentration pathways (RCP) 2.6 and 8.5 to assess the direct (animal welfare) and indirect (feed supply) impacts of climate change on a heat-tolerant breed (Boran) in Tanzania, Kenya, Uganda, and Rwanda.

METHODS

Our approach involves applying the Temperature-Humidity Index (THI) and Milk Production Decline (MDEC) equations to assess heat stress on animal welfare and milk production, alongside evaluating the indirect effects on feed supply, particularly maize (fodder) and Napier grass (forage) through the Python Agroecological Zoning (AEZ) framework.

RESULTS

Moderate THI stress is likely to expand under future climate, threatening milk production and reproductive performance. Additionally, under RCP 8.5, Boran daily milk yields losses can attain 0.4 kg/day (12%) by 2070-2099. Similarly, feed shortages are anticipated in northern parts of Kenya and Uganda, threatening consistent animal feed supply and affecting smallholder farmers reliant on rain-fed agricultural systems.

CONCLUSION

The compounded effect of simultaneous weather hazards intensifies risks in already vulnerable regions with limited coping capacity. As demand for meat and dairy continues to rise in East Africa, immediate climate action measures are essential to safeguard livestock productivity and enhance food security in a region confronting the dire consequences of climate change.

SIGNIFICANCE

The comprehensive analysis proposed here is instrumental in guiding public and private investments aimed at fostering climate resilience and improving disaster risk management across livestock production systems in East Africa.

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Published

2026-05-07

How to Cite

Alvar-Beltrán, J., Vallet, J., Kirungu, C., Soldan, R., Greenrod, S., Monzini, J., & Mottet, A. (2026). Direct and indirect effects of heat stress on cattle in East Africa. Italian Journal of Agrometeorology. https://doi.org/10.36253/ijam-3827

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REVIEW AND RESEARCH ARTICLES

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