The influence of extreme weather events on farm economic performance – a case study from Serbia


  • Saša Z. Todorović University of Belgrade, Faculty of Agriculture, Nemanjina 6, 11080 Belgrade - Zemun
  • Sanjin M. Ivanović University of Belgrade, Faculty of Agriculture, Nemanjina 6, 11080 Belgrade - Zemun
  • Natalija Lj. Bogdanov University of Belgrade, Faculty of Agriculture, Nemanjina 6, 11080 Belgrade - Zemun



flood, drought, gross product, gross margin, regression analysis


Western Balkan region, particularly Serbia, is faced with an increased frequency of extreme weather events, as a consequence of global climate change. However, there is still no enough research on how the effects of extreme weather events could be measured on the farm level. More importantly, there is no standard international methodology that is used regularly to address the issue. Therefore, the aim of this research was to evaluate the effects of extreme weather events on business performances of two the most common farm types in Serbia. To achieve this goal, the authors performed a financial loss assessment on a farm level. Panel models and R software environment were used to perform a multiple regression analysis allowing to indicate determinants of financial loss indicator depending on the farm’s production type. The results indicated that performance of both farm types is more influenced by drought than by floods. The regression analysis revealed that for both farm types financial stress is the most important independent variable.


ABATZOGLOU, J. T.; DOBROWSKI, S. Z.; PARKS, S. A.; HEGEWISCH, K. C., 2014. Terraclimate, a high-resolution global dataset of monthly climate and climatic water balance from 1958-2015. Scientific Data, 5, 170191, p. 1-12, 2018. doi: 10.1038/sdata.2017.191

ADKINS, L. C. Using gretl for Principles of Econometrics. 4th Edition Version 1.041, Oklahoma State University, Oklahoma.

ALFIERI, L.; BISSELINK, B.; DOTTORI, F.; NAUMANN, G.; DE ROO, A.; SALAMON, P.; WYSER, K.; FEYEN, L., 2017. Global projections of river flood risk in a warmer world. Earth's Future, 5, p. 171-182. doi:10.1002/2016EF000485

ANĐELKOVIĆ, B.; KOVAČ, M., 2016. Human Development Report - Serbia 2016; Social Capital: The Invisible Face of Resilience. UNDP Serbia, ISBN: 978-86-7728-238-7.

ANTOLINI, F.; TATE, E.; DALZELL, B.; YOUNG, N.; JOHNSON, K.; HAWTHORNE, P. L., 2020. Flood Risk Reduction from Agricultural Best Management Practices. Journal of the American Water Resources Association, v. 56, n. 1, 161–179. doi:10.1111/1752-1688.12812

ARBIA, G.; PIRAS, G., 2005. Convergence in per-capita GDP across European regions using panel data models extended to spatial autocorrelation effects. Istituto di Studi e Analisi Economica (ISAE), Roma, Working Paper. No. 51. doi: 10.2139/SSRN.936327

BALTAGI, B. H., 2005. Econometric Analysis of Panel Data. 3rd Edition, John Wiley & Sons Ltd., Chichester.

BRÉMOND, P.; GRELOT, F.; AGENAIS, A. L., 2013. Economic evaluation of flood damage to agriculture – review and analysis of existing methods. Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 13, p. 2493–2512. doi:10.5194/nhess-13-2493-2013

CISCAR, J. C., et al., 2018. Climate impacts in Europe: Final report of the JRC PESETA III project. JRC Science for Policy Report, Publications Office of the European Union, Luxembourg. doi:10.2760/93257

COGATO, A.; MEGGIO, F.; DE ANTONI MIGLIORATI, M.; MARINELLO, F., 2019. Extreme Weather Events in Agriculture: A Systematic Review. Sustainability, 2019, 11, 2547. doi:10.3390/su11092547

JEGA, A. A., 2018. Economic effects of flood disaster among smallholder farmers in Kelantan, Malaysia. Ph.D. Thessis, University Putra Malaysia.

JONGMAN, B.; KREIBICH, H.; APEL, H.; BARREDO, J. I.; BATES, P. D.; FEYEN, L.; GERICKE, A.; NEAL, J.; AERTS, J. C. J. H.; WARD, P. J., 2012. Comparative flood damage model assessment: towards a European approach. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, v. 12, n. 12, p. 3733-3752. doi:10.5194/nhess‐12‐3733‐2012

KARGER, D.N.; CONRAD, O.; BÖHNER, J.; KAWOHL, T.; KREFT, H.; SORIA-AUZA, R.W.; ZIMMERMANN, N. E.; LINDER, H. P.; KESSLER, M., 2017a. Climatologies at high resolution for the earth’s land surface areas. Scientific Data, 4, 170122, p. 1-20. doi: 10.1038/sdata.2017.122

KARGER, D. N., CONRAD, O., BÖHNER, J., KAWOHL, T., KREFT, H., SORIA-AUZA, R. W., ZIMMERMANN, N. E., LINDER, H. P., KESSLER, M., 2017b. Data from: Climatologies at high resolution for the earth’s land surface areas. Dryad Digital Repository. 2017b. doi:10.5061/dryad.kd1d4

KINGWELL, R. S.; XAYAVONG, V., 2017. How drought affects the financial characteristics of Australian farm businesses. Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, v. 61, n. 3, p. 344-366. doi: 10.1111/1467-8489.12195

KOVAČEVIĆ, D.; OLJAČA, S.; DOLIJANOVIĆ, Z.; MILIĆ, V., 2012. Climate changes: Ecological and agronomic options for mitigating the consequences of drought in Serbia. Third International Scientific Symposium „Agrosym 2012“ Jahorina, November 15-17, Faculty of Agriculture, University of East Sarajevo, Republic of Srpska, Bosnia and Hercegovina.

LAWES, R. A.; KINGWELL, R. S., 2012. A longitudinal examination of business performance indicators for drought-affected farms. Agricultural Systems, v. 106, n. 1, p. 94–101. doi: 10.1016/j.agsy.2011.10.006

LUKIC, T.; GAVRILOV, M.; MARKOVIC, S.; KOMAC, B.; ZORN, M.; MLADJAN, D.; DJORDJEVIC, J.; MILANOVIC, M.; VASILJEVIC, DJ.; VUJICIC, M.; KUZMANOVIC, B.; PRENTOVIC, R., 2013. Classification of natural disasters between the legislation and application: experience of the Republic of Serbia. Acta geographica Slovenica, v. 53, n. 1, p. 150-164. doi: 10.3986/AGS53301

AUTHOR, 2015.

MERZ, B.; KREIBICH, H.; SCHWARZE, R.; THIEKEN, A., 2010. Assessment of economic flood damage. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, v. 10, n. 8, p. 1697-1724. doi:10.5194/nhess-10-1697-2010

MIŠKIĆ, M.; NJEGOMIR, V.; STOJIĆ, D., 2018. Agricultural entrepreneurship and production risk management in Serbian farms. Custos e Agronegocio, v. 14, n. 3, p. 254–268.

MOSS, R. H.; EDMONDS, J. A.; HIBBARD, K. A.; MANNING, M. R.; ROSE, S.,K. et al., 2010. The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment. Nature, 463, p. 747–756. doi: 10.1038/nature08823

OCKWELL, A. The economic structure of Australian agriculture. In: Williams, D. B. (ed.), 1990. Agriculture in the Australian Economy. Sydney University Press, Sydney.

PARISSE, B.; PONTRANDOLFI, A.; EPIFANI, C.; ALILLA, R.; DE NATALE, F., 2020. An agrometeorological analysis of weather extremes supporting decisions for the agricultural policies in Italy. Italian Journal of Agrometeorology (3): 15-30. doi: 10.13128/ijam-790

PENNING-ROWSELL, E. C.; PRIEST, S.; PARKER, D.; MORRIS, J.; TUNSTALL, S.; VIAVATTENE, C.; CHATTERTON, J.; OWEN, D., 2013. Flood and Coastal Erosion Risk Management: a Manual for Economic Appraisal, Routledge, ISBN: 9780415815154.

SHRESTHA, B. B.; SAWANO, H.; OHARA, M.; YAMAZAKI, Y.; TOKUNAGA, Y., 2018. Methodology for agricultural flood damage assessment. In: Recent Advances in Flood Risk Management, IntechOpen, p. 1-19. doi:10.5772/intechopen.81011

SPINONI, J.; VOGT, J. V.; NAUMANN, G.; BARBOSA, P.; DOSIO, A., 2018. Will drought events become more frequent and severe in Europe? International Journal of Climatology, v. 38, n. 4, p. 1718-1736. doi:10.1002/joc.5291

STATISTICAL OFFICE OF THE REPUBLIC OF SERBIA. 2014. Agricultural census. SORS, Belgrade, Serbia.

STATISTICAL OFFICE OF THE REPUBLIC OF SERBIA. 2019. Farm Structure Survey (FSS) 2018. SORS. Belgrade, Serbia.

STATISTICAL OFFICE OF THE REPUBLIC OF SERBIA. 2016. Statistical Yearbook of the Republic of Serbia. SORS, Belgrade, Serbia.

THIEKEN, A. H.; ACKERMANN, V.; ELMER, F.; KREIBICH, H.; KUHLMANN, B.; KUNERT, U.; MAIWALD, H.; MERZ, B.; MÜLLER, M.; PIROTH, K.; SCHWARZ, J.; SCHWARZE, R.; SEIFERT, I.; SEIFERT, J., 2008. Methods for the evaluation of direct and indirect flood losses. 4th International Symposium on Flood Defense: Managing Flood Risk, Reliability and Vulnerability, Toronto, Ontario, Canada, May 6-8. Institute for Catastrophic Loss Reduction.

TORRENTE, E. C., 2012. Post Disaster Damage, Loss and Needs Assessment in Agriculture. Guidance note. FAO, Sub-regional office for the Pacific islands.

USAID., 2017. Climate Risk Profile: Serbia. (10.04.2020).

VAN VUUREN, D. P.; EDMONDS, J.; KAINUMA, M.; RIAHI, K.; THOMSON, A.; HIBBARD, K.; HURTT, G. C.; KRAM, T.; KREY, V.; LAMARQUE, J-F.; MATSUI, T.; MEINSHAUSEN, M.; NAKICENOVIC, N.; SMITH, S.J.; ROSE, S.K., 2011. Representative concentration pathways: An overview. Climatic Change, v. 109, n. 1, p. 5-31. doi:10.1007/s10584-011-0148-z

VEGA-SERRATOS, B. E.; DOMÍNGUEZ-MORA, R.; POSADA-VANEGAS, G., 2018. Seasonal flood risk assessment in agricultural areas. Tecnología y Ciencias del Agua, v. 9, n. 3, p. 91-127. doi:10.24850/j-tyca-2018-03-04

ZUROVEC, O.; VEDELD, P.O.; SITAULA, B.K., 2015, Agricultural Sector of Bosnia and Herzegovina and Climate Change—Challenges and Opportunities. Agriculture 2015, 5, 245-266. doi:10.3390/agriculture5020245




How to Cite

Todorović, S., Ivanović, S., & Bogdanov, N. (2021). The influence of extreme weather events on farm economic performance – a case study from Serbia. Italian Journal of Agrometeorology, (1), 51-62.