Predicting impacts of future climate change on the distribution and ecological dimension of Amygdalus scoparia Spach

Authors

  • Hossein Piri Sahragard Rangeland and Watershed Management Department, Faculty of Soil and Water, University of Zabol, Zabol, Iran
  • Majid Ajorlo Rangeland and Watershed Management Department, Faculty of Soil and Water, University of Zabol, Zabol, Iran
  • Peyman Karami Department of Environmental Sciences, Faculty of Natural Resources and Environment Sciences, Malayer University, Malayer, Iran

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.13128/ijam-845

Keywords:

Climate Change, Potential Distribution, Amygdalus scoparia, MaxEnt, Ecological Niche

Abstract

This study aimed to predict the potential distribution of Amygdalus scoparia and the changes in its ecological dimension under climate change scenarios using MaxEnt model in Iran. Species presence data, current climate data and different scenarios of CCM4 in 2050 and 2070 were used. Fars Province boundary and whole area of Iran were considered as the modeling boundary and projection boundary, respectively. The predictive power of the model was within acceptable levels (AUC = 0.88). The Bio3, Bio15 and Bio4 variables had the greatest impact on predicting the potential distribution of A. scoparia. The highest percentage of potential niche of A. scoparia will occur in 2070 under RCP4.5 scenario (24.62%) in Fars Province. In Iran, however, the highest (22.57%) and lowest (16.77%) potential niche of A. scoparia belong to current and RCP8.5 scenarios in 2050. Amygdalus scoparia lacks specialization in Fars Province, but the breadth of its ecological niche will be decreased in future and its distribution will be limited in main mountain ranges, i.e., the Alborz in northern and the Zagros in western Iran. 

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Published

2021-01-25

How to Cite

Piri Sahragard, H. ., Ajorlo, M., & Karami, P. . (2021). Predicting impacts of future climate change on the distribution and ecological dimension of Amygdalus scoparia Spach. Italian Journal of Agrometeorology, (2), 117-130. https://doi.org/10.13128/ijam-845

Issue

Section

RESEARCH ARTICLES