Response of maize yield under changing climate and production conditions in Vietnam.

Authors

  • Anh Thi Mai Tran Thai Nguyen University of Agriculture and Forestry, Quyet Thang commune, Thai Nguyen city, Vietnam
  • Josef Eitzinger Institute of Meteorology and Climatology, University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences, Gregor-Mendel-Straße 33, A-1180 Vienna, Austria
  • Ahmad M. Manschadi Division of Agronomy, Department of Crop Sciences, University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences, Konrad Lorenz-Straße 24, 3430 Tulln an der Donau, Austria

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.13128/ijam-764

Keywords:

Maize, production, crop model, DSSAT, CERES-Maize, climate scenario, drought, adaptation, Vietnam

Abstract

This study concerns rainfed maize (Zea mays. L) grown in two different (winter and spring) growing seasons under current and future climate conditions in north-east of Vietnam. The yield response of rainfed maize was investigated by applying the DSSAT CERES-Maize crop model and two climate scenarios according to Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. The results show that maize responds with a wide range of yield-levels due to the different climatic and production conditions. On average, under RCP 8.5 climate scenario, annual maize yield (including both winter and spring maize yields) increases by 1.1% while under RCP 4.5 the increase is 3.6%. The annual balanced maize yield increase under both RCPs is based, however, on significant changes in the simulated winter and spring maize yields, respectively. Winter maize yield was simulated to rise up to 33.3% and 31.9% under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, respectively. In contrast, simulated spring maize yield decreases under both RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 by 30.3% and 33.9%, respectively. From those findings, it can be concluded that rainfed maize yields under future changing climatic conditions maybe positively affected in winter growing season while it will be reduced in the spring growing season, mainly due to increasing drought stress. Therefore, irrigation will be crucial key for spring maize production in the future to mitigate the effects of changing climate on crop water availability.

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Published

2020-05-04

How to Cite

Tran, A. T. M., Eitzinger, J., & Manschadi, A. M. (2020). Response of maize yield under changing climate and production conditions in Vietnam. Italian Journal of Agrometeorology, (1), 73-84. https://doi.org/10.13128/ijam-764

Issue

Section

RESEARCH ARTICLES